Predictive Analytics for United Arab Emirates Improved in July
Current business activity for United Arab Emirates’ hoteliers weakened in July according to the latest reading of the country’s Hotel Industry Pulse (HIP). e−forecasting.com’s United Arab Emirates HIP – a business analytic which tracks current monthly overall business conditions in United Arab Emirates’ hotel industry – decreased 2.3% in June to a reading of 77.7. HIP index is set to equal 100 in 2010.
However, looking ahead of the curve, prospects of future business activity for United Arab Emirates’ hoteliers increased in July according to the latest reading of the country’s Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com’s United Arab Emirates HIL – a predictive analytic which gauges monthly what’s next for business in United Arab Emirates’ hotel industry – rose 0.4% in June to a reading of 111.9, following an increase of (+0.4%) in May. HIL index is set to equal 100 in 2010.
The six-month smoothed annualized growth rate of United Arab Emirates’ predictive analytic HIL registered a positive reading of (+7.2%) in June, following a gain of (+7.8%) in May. Consistent with its goal, the six-month smoothed annualized growth rate in HIL dips down several months ahead of the growth rate of the country’s hotel performance indicators, like Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Similarly, when the country’s hotels are in a downswing of the industry’s business cycle, the growth in HIL pops up first, signaling an upcoming end of the business recession, which implies a forthcoming recovery in business activity.
“While we have witnessed a major drop in business activity in this area over the last year and a half, future prospects and signs that the region may see at the very least, a stall in the freefall and some stabilization albeit at much lower levels than what this region has grown accustomed to, as our predictive analytic HIL reveals strengthened foreign demand and favorable energy prices which will positively impact tourism and the local economy. The probability for the country’s hotels entering a recession in the near future with falling performance indicators, like Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), remains elevated near 42%, but continues to stay below 50%. Once it crosses this threshold its highly unlikely that future recession-like business activity would not prevail for the remainder of the year, ” noted Maria Sogard CEO at e-forecasting.com.
Two of the three forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise United Arab Emirates’ Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) had a positive contribution to its change in June: Future Foreign Demand and Energy Costs. Only one indicator of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to the change of United Arab Emirates’ Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) in June: US Hotel Leading.
e-forecasting.com currently covers the top 25 US markets with predictive analytics reports on a monthly basis along with international countrywide hotel predictive analytics on the following nations: Australia, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates. The firm also produces hotel market forecasts for the same regions. Rather than simply collecting data, the analytics technology relies on the aggregation of data. This approach connects data, helping integrate facts in a meaningful way. The process first adjusts raw data for recurring events such as seasonality and then filters out outliers such as specific events – so called blind spots – which debilitate informed decisions; second, it aggregates adjusted data to groups of similarly-moving contextual analytics – called composites.